Calendar Year Performance 2015Calendar Year Performance 2016Calendar Year Performance 2017Calendar Year Performance 2018Calendar Year Performance 2019Calendar Year Performance 2020Calendar Year Performance 2021Calendar Year Performance 2022Calendar Year Performance 2023Calendar Year Performance 2024
+ 0.2 %
+ 9.8 %
+ 7.3 %
- 14.4 %
+ 18.6 %
+ 20.4 %
- 5.2 %
- 9.6 %
+ 7.8 %
+ 1.9 %
Net Asset Value
140.02 €
Asset Under Management
331 M €
Market
Emerging markets
SFDR - Fund Classification
Article
8
Data as of: 31 Dec 2024.
Data as of: 8 Jan 2025.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.
December was marked by a normalisation of the interest rate environment, with German and US long rates rising by 28bp and 40bp respectively, weighing on emerging bond assets.
Investors revised their rate cut projections for 2025 following the US Federal Reserve meeting, which, despite cutting its key rate by 25bp, adopted a hawkish tone.
Emerging equities were mixed, with Chinese markets rising and Latin American markets continuing to fall.
In China, the release of economic indicators was mixed, with an NBS manufacturing PMI down (50.5 in December compared with 51.5 in November) and a non-manufacturing PMI up (52.2 in December compared with 50 in November). China's leaders have reaffirmed their intention to step up fiscal measures in the months ahead.
In Brazil, in addition to the complex political and economic situation, annual inflation is back on the rise (4.87% in November compared with 4.76% in October). To combat this, the Central Bank of Brazil continued its cycle of monetary tightening by raising its rate by 100 basis points.
On the currency front, the US dollar continued to strengthen following Trump's victory in the US elections, which weighed on the currencies of emerging countries.
Performance commentary
Against this backdrop, the Fund posted a positive performance in December, slightly underperforming its benchmark indicator.
In fixed income, our positions in US debt and our exposure to certain emerging market debt, such as that of Brazil, had a negative impact. However, these losses were offset by the positive contribution of our positions in local Chinese rates.
Our credit exposure made a positive contribution, mainly due to our exposure to financials and our selection of external debt in emerging countries, particularly Argentina. Against a backdrop of widening credit spreads, our hedges aimed at reducing our exposure to this market made a positive contribution.
In equities, despite the disappointing performance of our South Korean stocks (Samsung Electronics, LG Chem), our equity investments made a positive contribution, benefiting from the excellent performance of our Taiwanese technology stocks (TSMC, Elite Material). Our equities hedges also contributed to performance.
Finally, on the currency front, although we benefited from our exposure to the US dollar, the fund was impacted by our positions in the Brazilian real.
Outlook strategy
We once again expect global growth to remain resilient, with consumption remaining robust and inflation continuing to fall gradually.
Against this backdrop, we expect the ECB, emerging market central banks and, to a lesser extent, the Federal Reserve to gradually continue their monetary easing. We therefore maintain a relatively high level of modified duration, above 5 at the end of the period.
In local rates, we favour central banks that are lagging the cycle, such as Mexico, South Africa and certain Eastern European countries (Czech Republic), which benefit from high real rates.
On the emerging external debt front, we are cautious about longer-term investment grade debt, as spreads are already relatively tight. That said, we see opportunities among rated high yield such as Ivory Coast, Colombia and South Africa. We also favour some lower-rated issuers whose fundamentals are improving, such as Argentina.
On credit, we are maintaining our positive bias, albeit cautiously, given the high valuations, and are maintaining a substantial level of hedging on the Itraxx Xover to protect the portfolio from the risk of widening spreads.
On the equities side, we remain constructive on emerging equities as we believe current valuations reflect a very pessimistic scenario.
We are maintaining a significant allocation to India, where the long-term outlook remains promising. However, stretched valuations and technical factors - such as the large inflow of capital in recent years - call for a more selective approach.
We continue to have significant exposure to the artificial intelligence theme, and during the month we increased our exposure to it with the addition to our portfolio of SK Hynix, the world leader in the manufacture of sophisticated memories known as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), for which it currently receives 100% of orders from Nvidia for its AI graphics chips.
Finally, on the currency front, we are cautious on EM currencies given the inflationary potential of some of D. Trump's policy proposals, which could further strengthen the US dollar. This is why we have a short position on Asian currencies and a moderate position on the US dollar.
However, we maintain a selective exposure to certain EM currencies, with a preference for Latin American and Central and Eastern European currencies, which offer attractive valuations and carry.
Below are the key figures for the Fund, which will give you a clearer idea of the Fund's equity and bond management and positioning.
Exposure Data
Data as of: 31 Dec 2024.
Equity Investment Weight36.6 %
Net Equity Exposure24.0 %
Active Share90.3 %
Modified Duration4.8
Yield to Maturity7.5 %
Average RatingBBB-
Yield to Maturity (YTM) is the estimated annual rate of return expected on a bond if held until maturity and assuming all payments made as scheduled and reinvested at this rate. For perpetual bonds, the next call date is used for computation. Note that the yield shown does not take into account the FX carry and fees and expenses of the portfolio. The portfolio’s YTM is the weighted average individual bonds holdings' YTMs within the portfolio.
The strategy in a nutshell
Discover the Fund’s main features and benefits through the words of the Fund Managers.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.
Carmignac Portfolio is a sub-fund of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive.
The information presented above is not contractually binding and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor), where applicable. Investors may lose some or all of their capital, as the capital in the UCI is not guaranteed. Access to the products and services presented herein may be restricted for some individuals or countries. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The risks, fees and recommended investment period for the UCI presented are detailed in the KIDs (key information documents) and prospectuses available on this website. The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to purchase.). The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.
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Market environment